Showing posts with label 700 MHz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 700 MHz. Show all posts

Sunday, December 9, 2007

Links: Android running, 700 MHz Auction guide, Cellphone service survey, Object DB for Android

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Harold Feld's 4 reasons why Google intends to win the 700 MHz Auction

So far we have seen fanboy optimism that Google will bid in the 700 MHz spectrum to win, cycnical suggestions by analysts and bloggers that Google will not bid to win, and even a pseudo-psycho interpretation of Google's words on its intent to win.

Finally, we have something a little more reasoned: Harold Feld, Senior Vice President of the Media Access Project, snorts some oak leaves and gives Four Reasons Why Google Will Bid To Win in the 700 MHz Auction. The reasons listed are (in the words of Harold Feld):
  1. Google Has A Different Vision For the Wireless World It Can Only Achieve By Owning Licenses.
  2. Google Has No Desire To Be A Network Provider. But It Wants To Be A Network Architect.
  3. Anonymous Bidding Changes Everything.
  4. When Google Commits, It Does So All The Way.

Harold Feld offers excellent arguments supporting each reason. Just one example:
For Google, more than wireless is at stake. Google can read the writing on the wall for wireline, even if dumbass regulators in DC can't. Given enough time, the cable/DSL duopoly will gradually morph away from the existing open internet model to become more and more like wireless is today: you buy a basic contract for the core service and everything else costs extra. The provider bundles everything, controls the nature of outside attachments, applications, etc., etc., always taking its chunk off the top and driving up the price to everyone else. But if Google is successful in transforming the wireless world, it will also stop the transformation of the wireline world. By contrast, if Google can't stop the transformation of the wireless world, it is probably screwed on the wireline side as well.
.
This is the type of well-thought analyses we'd like to see more often in the blogosphere, as opposed to the usual tech blogging at warp speed. Needless to say, I have long given up hopes of any real tech analysis of good value coming out of the MSM*.



[via Wetmachine]


Related:
Google announces participation in 700 MHz Auction
Does Google intend to win the 700 MHz Spectrum Auction?


*MSM = Main Stream Media

Sunday, December 2, 2007

More speculation on Google's plans for the 700 MHz spectrum

The Digital Home blog on CNET.com speculates that after winning the 700 MHz spectrum auction, Google will change this industry forever.

The author Don Reisinger thinks Google will do two things with the 700 MHz spectrum (he pretty much assumes that Google will win it):
  1. Offer VoIP calling over the spectrum which will "destroy the cell phone industry as we know it today".
  2. Offer free nationwide Wi-Fi, giving "serious problems" to current ISPs, and resulting in almost every device ("HDTVs, for example") having WiFi connectivity options.

Sounds like Brother Reisinger's faith in Google is huge, unshakeable and total. And to think it is people like these that Google might disappoint, almost make us cry!



[via The Digital Home on CNET]

Related: Will Google do an Android with the 700 MHz Spectrum?

Does Google intend to win the 700 MHz Spectrum Auction?

Suppose three different players of a team tell you right before a big match, "Whether we win or lose this match, the game and spectators will always be the winners!" Now what would you think of that team's chances of winning?

That is correct: not much. I have heard similar statements from commentators in the media after India lost big cricket matches. But I never thought I'd hear such words from Google. But this is exactly what Google's official line seems to be, with only a few more weeks to go before the 700 MHz spectrum auction.

Google's CEO Eric Schmidt in the press release announcing Google's intentions to bid:
"No matter which bidder ultimately prevails, the real winners of this auction are American consumers who likely will see more choices than ever before in how they access the Internet."

Google's co-founder Larry Page as quoted in Fortune magazine's Techland blog:
“I don’t think we feel like there is a desperate need for us to have to bid to win or anything like that,” Page told analysts during the company’s quarterly earnings call last month. “We have many, many different options available to us as a company in terms of spectrum.”

Finally, the very title of the Official Google blog post by Chris Sacca, Google Head of Special Initiatives, announcing their auction entry, pretty much seems to say it directly:
Who's going to win the spectrum auction? Consumers.

Even if Google did not intend to bid in the auction to win, why would its official stand be so blantantly obvious? Is this a deliberate ploy to convey the message that Google is not all that desperate to win (which is quite true, anyway)?

I wrote in the previous post that I don't believe Google will not bid to win. Now that sounds like fanboy optimism even to my own self. The above quotes from Google are not very encouraging. There are a lot of fanboys out there who have high hopes that Google will ride in like a knight in shining armor and rescue American consumers from the tight clutches of incumbent evil telcos. They are going to be mighty disappointed if Google does not win the 700 MHz auction.

And, if Google does not even put up a sincere and honest fight? Could be a bad PR move, which would bring down Google's image a few notches down.

Friday, November 30, 2007

Google announces participation in 700 MHz Auction

Google has ended all doubts (there were indeed some who doubted) and announced that it will indeed participate in the 700 MHz auction.

Here's the Official Google Blog making this announcement: Who's going to win the spectrum auction? Consumers.

And the press release: Google Will Apply to Participate in FCC Spectrum Auction.

The blog post is more detailed than the press release, giving a basic primer on the auction process for the next few months. After this announcement, Google can talk no more about the auction until the auction ends. This is explained in the blog post as well:
Monday, December 3, is the deadline for prospective bidders to apply with the FCC to participate in the auction. Though the auction itself won't start until January 24, 2008, Monday also marks the starting point for the FCC's anti-collusion rules, which prevent participants in the auction from discussing their bidding strategy with each other.

These rules are designed to keep the auction process fair, by keeping bidders from cooperating in anticompetitive ways so as to drive the auction prices in artificial directions. While these rules primarily affect private communications among prospective bidders, the FCC historically has included all forms of public communications in its interpretation of these rules.

All of this means that, as much as we would like to offer a step-by-step account of what's happening in the auction, the FCC's rules prevent us from doing so until the auction ends early next year.

Another interesting point about the auction process: the auction will be completely anonymous - nobody will know what anybody else is bidding and who has won each block of the spectrum until the auction ends probably in March 2008.

Now that the question of whether or not Google will participate in the auction is settled, there are still some people who are speculating that Google will not bid to win. They claim that Google will only participate as a formality, since it has made so much noise about this auction already. There are few others who say that Google will bid upto the reserve price of $4.6 billion for the C Block spectrum, in order to ensure that the pre-conditions of allowing any application and any device to use the network will remain safely in place. The FCC has mentioned that if there are no bids which at least match the reserve price, these pre-conditions will be taken off and fresh bids welcomed.

That last point makes a little more sense, but I don't believe that Google will not bid to win. Google knows the worth of this prime spectrum. Billions of dollars is not small money. But compared to the value of what can be done on this spectrum, it is fair money... may be even a low price! So, I believe that Google will bid to win... unless something totally unexpected or outrageous happens. I cannot even speculate on what that could be.


[via The Official Google Blog and Google Press Center]

Thursday, November 29, 2007

700 MHz Build-out: New Entrants vs Incumbents

Wired Blog Network's Epicenter has a very interesting comparison of the build-out by new entrants versus existing telecom organizations, should they win the 700 MHz spectrum auction. Four important aspects are compared - deployment approach, technology choice, business model and time to market.

Most interestingly, this comparison is not based on the 'philosophical positions on open vs. closed networks" of the new entrants and the incumbents. The comparison is rather based on practical considerations such as constraints of legacy sites and systems, existing core business, and the attention split between current operations and the new spectrum usage. This leads to some interesting conclusions.

For example, most people think that if an incumbent telecom company wins the 700 MHz spectrum auction, it would make this spectrum available to the end-users much faster than a new entrant. The reasoning is that the incumbent already has the necessary infrastructure in place, where as the new entrant would take years to build such infrastructure. The Epicenter article argues that the opposite might be true. A new entrant's revenue is dependent on rapidly delivering the new spectrum to end-users and so, there is more motivation to move quickly. Where as, an incumbent's time and attention is split with the "revenue-generating" existing operations, which could slow things down. Worse, the incumbent might deliberately slow things to avoid impact to the existing "core business".

One thing is for sure: this comparison gives us reasons to wish even more strongly that at least a part of the 700 MHz spectrum being auctioned off is won by a new entrant, such as Google.

[via blog.wired.com >> Epicenter]


Related: Will Google do an Android with the 700 MHz Spectrum?

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Will Google do an Android with the 700 MHz Spectrum?

Will Google do an Android with the 700 MHz Spectrum? That is, give it away for free to multiple carrier partners who promise to play open?

I came across this excellent analysis on Google’s True Agenda with the 700 MHz Spectrum auction. It was a delight to read, despite the less-than-perfect grammar.

Granted, it is all speculation and conjecture at this point. But to gauge the quality of that post you should compare it to the Wall Street Journal article Google Has Even Bigger Plans for Mobile Phones, which is just a hash of rumors from "people familiar with the matter". The Guru of tech bloggers Om Malik described the Wall Street Journal article as a report about Google’s big mobile plans is one that covers all bases, and leaves you where you started from: scratching your head.

I don't know who has written the Penny College article, but I bet s/he is an engineer. S/he presents coherent and convincing arguments for its conclusion, which is:
So what is Google’s true intent then? How could it participate in the auction while still preserving its goal of rapid development while guaranteeing user access to its services and software? The solution is simple, yet it has been overlooked by most business analysts and technology pundits - Google will be purchasing the spectrum and open it to all providers free of charge under one condition, that providers allow any software and services (Including Android) to run on it without further interference or extra charges. Basically, Google is intending on preserving or creating telecom democracy through financial incentives.

That's just a teaser. You should visit the original article and get all the juicy details there. Couple of points about this article's conclusions:
  • Although it makes sense that Google will allow many different carriers to use the spectrum it might win, I don't believe that Google will just give away prime spectrum for free to any carrier.
  • I am not sure how multiple carriers can technically use the same frequency in the same place as this article suggestions.


[via pennycollege.com]